Porto trip-duration prediction

Test a route, inspect the prediction.

Cabrynt uses OSRM for a road-route baseline, then applies an ONNX residual model using route and quote-time context.

Test a Porto route

Choose a pickup and destination inside the supported area.

Live prediction

Select two points and calculate a route to see the baseline and model-corrected prediction.

Model performance

The deployed model was trained on 200,000 historical Porto trips and evaluated on a separate set of 5,000 unseen trips.

Average error

38.4% lower

Mean absolute error compared with direct OSRM.

Typical error

53.1% lower

Median absolute error across evaluated routes.

Higher-error routes

38.0% lower

P90 error, the level not exceeded by 90% of routes.

ModelMAEMedian absolute errorP90 absolute error
Direct OSRM5.488 min3.530 min10.817 min
OSRM + ML correction3.383 min1.656 min6.702 min

Prediction scope

  • Porto routes only.
  • OSRM route duration and distance provide the routing baseline.
  • Quote-time calendar, weather, route, and historical-congestion features provide context.
  • ONNX Runtime serves the residual model within the ASP.NET Core API.

Known behavior

The model corrects a road-route estimate instead of recreating routing from coordinates. Direct OSRM was more accurate for completed historical trips lasting up to five minutes, but actual duration is unknown when a quote is requested, so this cannot be a dependable live fallback rule.

The API falls back to OSRM only when routing context, weather, or model inference is unavailable.